Analyzing the latest NFL MVP odds and best bets after Week 11

Nov 20, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) is pressured by Los Angeles Chargers defensive end Morgan Fox (56) in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

With 11 weeks in the books, Thanksgiving upon us, and seven weeks left to play, it’s time to share the updated NFL MVP odds in 2022.

This is the point in the season when the NFL MVP race starts to heat up. For bettors, now is the time to look at the current NFL MVP odds, as well as the OROY odds and DPOY odds, and other postseason awards to make the most educated guess on a futures bet.

Updated NFL MVP odds 2022 after Week 11

Player Odds To Win 2022 NFL MVP
Patrick Mahomes -160
Jalen Hurts +600
Josh Allen +650
Tua Tagovailoa +650
Lamar Jackson +2600
Joe Burrow +2600
Geno Smith +3800
Kirk Cousins +5000
Tyreek Hill +7500
Tom Brady +7500

All odds taken November 21 at FanDuel Sportsbook

So, who’s leading the MVP race after Week 11? Perhaps more importantly, who else is a serious contender in the NFL MVP race as we head down the final stretch of the season?

At this point, MVP honors are far from spoken for, so things are still wide open. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the updated NFL MVP odds in 2022 after Week 11 and the top contenders in the race.

Patrick Mahomes, -160

Patrick Mahomes has taken firm command of the updated NFL MVP odds for 2022. Most of the questions about Mahomes adjusting to a new set of receivers without Tyreek Hill appear to have been answered.

Kansas City has become the class of the AFC and is leading the NFL in both passing yards and points per game. Mahomes is averaging over 320 passing yards per game and already has 28 touchdown passes and is on pace to at least get close to 50 touchdowns on the season.

Unless there’s a sudden drop in his performance levels, it’ll be hard to envision Mahomes not being the betting favorite or the obvious choice at the end of the season.

Jalen Hurts, +600

Someone needs to accept the credit for the Eagles being 9-1 and it might as well be the quarterback. Granted, it’s truly been a team effort in Philadelphia with the Eagles also having a top-10 defense.

But Jalen Hurts has undoubtedly grown by leaps and bounds this season and become the straw that stirs the drink.

His passing numbers may not jump off the page, although he has 15 touchdown passes and just three interceptions while completing 68% of his passes. Hurts also has eight rushing touchdowns in 10 games. If he continues to showcase his dual-threat abilities and the Eagles keep winning, Hurts will remain in the MVP conversation. 

Josh Allen, +650

Once the MVP frontrunner, Josh Allen has seen his chances drop in recent weeks. Throwing two interceptions in three consecutive games tends to do that.

However, his performance in a Week 11 win could help get both Allen and the Buffalo offense back on track. After all, the Bills are second in the league in scoring with Allen averaging 293 passing yards per game with 21 touchdown passes in 10 games.

He’s also his teams leading rusher, which can’t hurt his chances. If Allen is able to put a few subpar games behind him and start playing anywhere close to his best, he’s far from finished in the MVP race.

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Tua Tagovailoa, +650

Despite that scary injury earlier in the season, Tua Tagovailoa has picked up where he left off before missing time. He’s leading the sixth-best offense in the league with the Dolphins also averaging the second-most passing yards per game despite Tagovailoa missing two games and barely playing in a third.

When he’s been healthy, Tagovailoa is averaging 283 passing yards per game and over nine yards per pass, so he’s helped the Miami offense create plenty of big plays.

Before Miami’s Week 11 bye, Tagovailoa had thrown three touchdown passes in three straight games, so his MVP stock is on the rise. It also doesn’t hurt that the Dolphins are undefeated in the games that he’s started and finished. If that trend continues, it’ll be impossible to ignore Tagovailoa as a serious MVP candidate.

Lamar Jackson, +2600

Lamar Jackson is literally doing it all for the 7-3 Ravens, making valuable the operative word in MVP. As a quarterback, Jackson is the leading rusher on a team with the second-most rushing yards in the league.

He’s also thrown 16 touchdown passes, so he has a chance to reach 30 touchdown passes on top of his rushing prowess.

The downside is that Jackson is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game and less than seven yards per pass. However, his dual-threat abilities and the fact that the Ravens look like one of the best teams in the AFC while being so reliant on Jackson will keep him in the MVP discussion.

Joe Burrow, +2600

Joe Burrow made a late push for MVP last season with an outstanding December and it’s hard not to rule out something similar this season. The current MVP odds aren’t in Burrow’s favor, although his play in recent weeks has him trending in the right direction, even with Ja’Marr Chase sidelined.

Burrow is up to 289 passing yards per game and could easily reach 40 touchdown passes on the season after throwing multiple touchdown passes in four of his last five games. If one were to dismiss the first two weeks of the season, Burrow’s MVP case would be even stronger.

That’s a good indication that his case should continue to grow stronger late in the season, especially if the Cincinnati offensive line can play better and give him a little more time in the pocket.

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Geno Smith, +3800

While his odds are long, the fact that Geno Smith is even being mentioned in the MVP race is a huge win for him and the Seahawks. His completion percentage is close to 73% and he’s thrown just four interceptions in 10 games.

He’s also leading a team that was expected by everyone to finish last and made them a legitimate playoff contender. Even if his numbers aren’t overwhelming and the Seattle running game deserves some of the credit, Smith deserves some consideration for MVP honors.

Best bet in NFL MVP futures

At this point, Mahomes is the safe bet and the best bet. It’s not hard to envision Allen, Tagovailoa, or Burrow finishing strong and giving him a run for his money.

But Mahomes already has a considerable lead in the MVP race and he’s unlikely to give it up.

The rest of the contenders need to shine down the stretch while also hoping that Mahomes stumbles. That doesn’t seem likely, making Mahomes the best bet for NFL MVP right now.