Can’t score in Denver? Take the under

Yahoo fantasy football analyst Scott Pianowski reveals his weekly NFL betting ticket in his Throwing Darts column. Check out where he’s putting his jelly beans for Week 11. All lines courtesy of our friends at BetMGM.

We had our second losing slate of the season last week, falling to 2-3 in part because of Chicago’s collapse against Detroit. That’s part of the game. Sometimes you sneak out games that look lost, sometimes you find a way to lose games that appear safe.

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We’re still pleased to be sitting 31-17-2 on the year, against the point spread of course.

Let’s see what looks good for Week 11:

Bears +3 at Falcons

Chicago is a flawed team, I get it, but it should have beaten the Commanders in Week 6 and the Bears have scored 123 points the last four weeks. The light has gone on for Justin Fields. And for all the supposed talent on the Atlanta offense, the Falcons have 315 yards or fewer in four of their last five starts. Have fun watching Marcus Mariota air-mailing an open Kyle Pitts.

Justin Fields’ midseason 180 has been one of the bigger stories in the NFL this year. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Giants -3 vs. Lions

The line looks surprising if you focus on won/loss records, but of course, deeper metrics are more worthwhile and those actually suggest these teams are close to even. But Detroit has had a nasty road split in recent years, and although I like Dan Campbell’s personality and energy, I trust Brian Daboll much more on Sundays.

Cowboys -1.5 at Vikings

This is one of those emotional zig-zag spots, where you fade the Vikings after their shocking victory at Buffalo and you back the Cowboys after they somehow gave away a game to the mediocre Packers.

Broncos-Raiders Under 41.5

I rarely give out totals, and it’s with a touch of sadness because I feel like I already missed the great Broncos under giveaway. Denver games have fallen under the total eight times in nine weeks, tied to an offense that can’t score and a defense that’s easily in the top five. The key to staying under 41.5 here will be Derek Carr

and Russell Wilson avoiding turnovers, and although neither is playing particularly well right now, I do expect they’ll at least take care of the ball. Let’s bet on nothing much happening for three hours.

I get it, it’s terrifying to pick against Kansas City most weeks. But the Chargers might be getting healthy at the right time, and six points is a lot to fetch for a home underdog that is not a punching bag.

Last Week: 2-3

Season: 31-17-2

Pianow’s historical Throwing Darts record (only two losing seasons in 13 years) and 2022 weekly results are listed here.

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