NFL Thanksgiving picks, odds, betting offers

Our NFL betting writer offers best betting picks and predictions for the Thanksgiving Day game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, scheduled to air Thursday at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

At 7-3, the Cowboys and Giants are in pursuit of the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles and firmly in the chase for a wildcard playoff spot. Dallas beat the Giants in the previous meeting this season without Dak Prescott, who is back from a thumb injury as the Cowboys ride a wave of momentum from a 40-3 win over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

Cowboys vs. Giants picks

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Cowboys vs. Giants prediction and analysis

Dallas has plenty to feel good about after destroying the Minnesota Vikings 40-3 on Sunday. It was supposed to be one of the best games of the week, with the Vikings entering 8-1 off their game-of-the-year victory over Buffalo. Instead, Dak Prescott, the Cowboys’ running game and the defense combined to deliver the franchise’s largest-ever margin of victory in a road game.

The Giants have played on Thanksgiving twice this millennium, but they haven’t faced the Cowboys on Turkey Day since 1992. Meantime, the Washington football team formerly known as the Washington Football Team visited Dallas for Thanksgiving four times between 2012 and 2020. Go figure. Thank the football gods that New York is a contender this year, though Big Blue comes into this game with losses in two of its past three, including a 31-18 defeat against Detroit last week.

Daniel Jones and the New York Giants
Daniel Jones and the New York Giants
Getty Images

Cowboys cover -9.5

The Cowboys are the more talented team, the more complete team and the team in better form right now. To top it off, they have home-field advantage and are sure to have their usual raucous crowd show up for an annual Thanksgiving tradition.

The Giants injury situation brings intrigue to the 9.5-point spread, even in light of the Minnesota mauling. New York appears to be set to take a swing at the Cowboys with a barely recognizable offensive line. Tackle Evan Neal didn’t make the trip and bookend blocker Andrew Thomas is questionable, with his arrow pointed downward.

Giants coach Brian Daboll has learned something from these teams’ first meeting, which Dallas won 23-16. That day, the Giants ran the ball just 25 times, which still stands as their season low. The next week, New York pounded the rock 44 times and got back on a winning path.

But that template only works if the Giants are within striking distance. A holiday-energy injected offense with Dak Prescott at the trigger could place the game squarely on Daniel Jones, whose band of available wide receivers never made a QBs wish list.

Cowboys vs. Giants pick: Cowboys to cover -9.5 @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

Under 45.5 total points

The Giants are 2-7-1 in the O/U category this season; the Cowboys are 3-6-1. Yet Vegas didn’t adjust this week’s total quite as far down as it should be.

The Cowboys contained dynamic wideout Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota offense last week, forcing a 1-for-11 rate on third downs and seven punts. That boosted the Cowboys to No. 1 in the NFL in scoring defense (16.7 ppg), while the Giants are a respectable 13th (20.4).

New York has been succeeding by forcing low-scoring games; its offense has eclipsed 24 points just once all season. And if the Giants rely on the ground game like we think they will, that naturally produces lower-scoring games than pass-heavy contests. The Giants are fourth in the league in rushing offense (157.2 ypg), while Dallas is close behind in eighth (136.2).

Remember, these teams combined for just 39 points when they last saw each other. The under is as safe a bet as your mother’s Thanksgiving cooking.

Cowboys vs. Giants pick: Under 45.5 total points @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

Betting on the NFL?

Dak Prescott over 247.5 passing yards

After he missed five games with a thumb injury, Prescott returned in Week 7 and got warmed up against the Detroit Lions. Since then, he’s hit 250 passing yards in three straight games while completing a combined 71.4 percent of his throws against the Chicago Bears, Packers and Vikings.

In his 11 career games against the Giants, Prescott has gone 9-2 and averaged 262.4 yards per game, with a 21:5 touchdown-interception ratio for good measure.

Since Prescott missed the first New York game while injured, he hasn’t had to face this year’s version of the Giants — but then again, this year’s Giants haven’t had to face him either.  In his first year as New York’s defensive coordinator, Don Martindale has done a fine job coaching the pass defense, but they have had the benefit of playing some of the weakest opposing quarterbacks in the league (Carolina, Chicago, Jacksonville, Houston).

We are confident Prescott and his receivers will be flying high off last week’s performance and keep the momentum going on a short week.

Cowboys vs. Giants pick: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott to pass for over 247.5 yards @ -117 at Caesars Sportsbook

Cowboys vs. Giants odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, accurate at the time of publishing, subject to change.

Team Spread Money line Total Points 45.5
Giants (+9.5) -110 +345 Over -110
Cowboys (-9.5) -110 -455 Under -110