Week 11 NFL picks, betting offers

Our NFL betting writer brings you his best Lions vs. Giants predictions and picks for their NFL Week 11 showdown, which is live Sunday on FOX at 1 p.m. EST.

Detroit rallied from a 24-10 deficit after three quarters to defeat the host Chicago Bears 31-30 in Week 10. The Lions (3-6) have won two straight following a five-game skid. The Giants (7-2) have won five of six, returning from their bye week with a 24-16 home win against the Houston Texans in which Saquon Barkley rushed for 152 yards and a touchdown.

Lions vs. Giants picks

  • (Spread/Total) Giants +3.5 and game over 40.5 total points, @ +105 via BetMGM
  • Daniel Jones under 229.5 passing yards, @ – 110 via BetMGM 
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown under 90.5 receiving yards, @ -110 via BetMGM

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Lions vs. Giants prediction and analysis

Detroit will aim to improve to 2-2 against NFC East foes this season as it closes a two-game road trip. The Lions in Chicago topped 30 points for the first time since Week 4.

The Giants will look to remain a game back of division-leading Philadelphia entering a crunch that continues with a Thanksgiving Day visit to Dallas after Sunday.

Same Game Parlay: Giants +3.5 + over 40.5 total points

New York fed Houston a heavy dose of Barkley last week, as the NFL rushing leader with 931 yards finished with a career-high 35 carries.

That came against a Texans defense that has yielded a league-worst 1,636 rushing yards. Now come the Lions, who have allowed 1,448 yards on the ground, ranked 31st in the NFL, and 5.3 yards per carry, ranked 30th.

Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones
Getty Images

A similar formula would seem a smart — and sure — route as the Giants pursue their eighth victory this season.

New York must be aware of Detroit’s ground game in kind. D’Andre Swift has a rushing touchdown in two of the past three games, while Jamaal Williams ran for a score against the Bears, giving him a career- and NFC-best nine rushing TDs.

Lions vs. Giants pick: Giants +3.5 and over 40.5 total points @ +105 (BetMGM)

Daniel Jones under 229.5 passing yards

Quarterback Daniel Jones played effectively and efficiently against the Texans, passing for 197 yards and two touchdowns en route to compiling a career-best 153.3 QB rating.

He has a history of doing the same against the Lions, having thrown for 322 yards and four scores in a narrow road loss at Detroit as a rookie in 2019.

The Lions defense registered three sacks and an interception against nimble Bears quarterback Josh Fields last week, and while Jones has shown a penchant for getting out of the pocket some, Detroit should be able to keep him reined in to some degree, especially as the Lions try to limit Barkley.

Defensive end Aidan Hutchison, the league rookie leader with 5 ½ sacks, has notched a sack in two straight road games, while linebacker Julian Okwara is coming off a two-sack effort.

Lions vs. Giants pick: Daniel Jones under 229.5 passing yards @ – 110 (BetMGM)

Amon-Ra St. Brown #14
Amon-Ra St. Brown #14
Getty Images

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Amon-Ra St. Brown under 89.5 receiving yards

Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra enjoyed a breakout day against the Bears, catching 10 of 11 targets for 119 yards. Brown had been largely bottled up since recording nine receptions for 116 yards and two scores in a Week 2 win against Washington. He hasn’t visited the end zone since.

With the Giants limiting foes to a 58.1 percent completion rate, second lowest in the league, it may be another long afternoon for Brown.

Lions vs. Giants pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown under 89.5 receiving yards @ -110 (BetMGM)

Lions vs. Giants odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Team Spread  Moneyline Total Points 45
Lions (+3)  -110 +135 Over   -110
Giants  (-3)   -110 -165 Under -110