Week 11 NFL picks, odds

Our NFL betting writer brings you his best Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions and picks for their NFL week 11 showdown, which is live Sunday on NBC at 8:20 p.m. ET.

The Chiefs aim to extend a three-game winning streak when they visit the Chargers in a primetime star-studded matchup featuring All-Pro candidates in Kansas City quarterback and LA running back Austin Ekeler.

Chiefs vs. Chargers picks



Risk Free First Bet up to $1,000 with NPBONUS

New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. (Welcome Offer not available in NY & PA) Full T&C apply.


Caesars Sportsbook Logo Square

First bet up To $1,250 On Caesars

New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.



No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000

21+. New customers only. AZ, CT, IA, IL, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, WV, WY only. T&C apply

Chiefs vs. Chargers predictions and analysis

Kansas City is in the driver’s seat to win the AFC West again. Winning this game in Los Angeles could go a  long way in helping the Chiefs clinch the division title. Meanwhile, the Chargers are in second place in the division and could use a win to bolster their hopes of making the playoffs.

The Chiefs will, of course, lean on the playmaking abilities of Mahomes, who leads the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns this season. The Chargers’ offense has been powered by Ekeler, who has 10 touchdowns from scrimmage this season, which is second-best in the NFL.

Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert
Getty Images

Charging +6

As previously stated, the Chargers need to win this game more than the Chiefs do if they want to go to the playoffs. A loss would drop Los Angeles to 5-5 and them in a blender with two other five-win teams – the Patriots and Bengals – at the bottom of the Wild Card race.

The last time the Chargers and Chiefs played, Los Angeles led for three quarters, then lost it on a pick-six and a pair of Matt Ammendola field goals in the fourth quarter. Still, the Chiefs only won by three points. In fact, four of the last five meetings between the Chiefs and Chargers have been decided by six points or less.

Los Angeles also has a winning record against the spread this season, going 6-3.

Additionally, look for the Chargers to get Ekeler heavily involved this week after he had just six carries last week in their loss to the 49ers. Los Angeles is 5-1 this season when Ekeler has more than 10 carries.

Pick: Chargers to cover (+6.0) at -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Under 51 points

The over-under in this game is set at 51 points. Despite the Chiefs having the highest-scoring offense in the league, they haven’t combined with an opponent to score that much recently.

Kansas City’s final scores have gone over 51 points just once in the Chiefs’ last four contests. The same is true for the Chargers; just once in Los Angeles’ last four games, the final score finished above 51 points.

And the last time the Chiefs and Chargers played – in Week 2 in Kansas City – the score finished 27-24, exactly 51 points. With both teams battling injuries to key offensive playmakers, expect this game to finish under what the Vegas bookmakers think.

Pick: Under 51 points at -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Betting on the NFL?

Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes
Getty Images

Chiefs to put on first drive +113

Caesars has a prop this week for the outcome of the Chiefs’ first drive: +113 they punt, +200 they score a touchdown, +400 for a field goal attempt, and +575 for a turnover.

Bettors should rule out the option to score a touchdown. The Chiefs haven’t found the endzone on an opening drive since their Oct. 2 win in Tampa Bay. And recent history tells us they probably won’t kick a field goal either – the Chiefs have attempted a field goal on an opening drive just once this season.

The Chiefs have turned the ball over on their opening drives in three of their last four games, fumbling once and throwing two interceptions. But Los Angeles doesn’t exactly have an opportunistic defense, tallying a middling 12 takeaways this season – which rank just 17th in the league.

So, that leaves us with the punt. And that’s what the Chiefs did on their opening drive against the Chargers in Week Two.

Pick: Chiefs to punt on first drive at +113 at Caesars Sportsbook

Chiefs vs. Chargers odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Team Spread  Moneyline Total Points 51.0
Chiefs (-6.0)  -110 -260 Over   -110
Chargers (+6.0)  -110 +210 Under -110